Transparency

Methodology

Data sources, what goes into the regime engine, update cadence and versioning.

Data as of 2026-07-19 22:57 UTC

Data sources

BTC/USDT daily and 1-hour OHLCV candles from the live candle API (https://candle.grabbitsignal.com), fetched at build time.
No on-chain, sentiment, or macro data is used on this site yet -- those data sources are not collected by CoinMonitor24 today, so nothing built on them is shown or promised (see the business plan's data inventory).
All indicators (EMA, RSI, realized volatility) are computed from the raw OHLCV candles by this generator, not fetched pre-computed.

regime-v1.0 is a deterministic rule engine (no ML, no LLM) built on two views of the live market: the trend structure of price and a volatility overlay measured against its own long trailing history.
The exact rules, weights and thresholds are proprietary -- they are the product, and the same principle applies to every future CoinMonitor24 model.
What stays fully public instead is accountability: the current state, plain-language explanation of the phase we are in, version labels, and a never-rewritten history of past states (plus, once the forecast archive is live, a tamper-evident scorecard).

Every moving-average-based indicator is computed from at least 4x its period of warm-up candles before the first displayed value (EMA20 -> 80 candles, EMA50 -> 200, EMA200 -> 800), so displayed values are fully converged -- never a 'warming up' distorted value at the edge of a chart.
Volatility-based readings are only shown once a full long trailing history is available to compare against -- never from a short, unrepresentative sample.
If the live API cannot supply enough history to satisfy warm-up, the site build fails loudly instead of showing an under-warmed value.

Regime and indicator pages are intended to refresh roughly every 15 minutes once this generator runs on a schedule (see docs/architecture.md 3.2) -- this MVP build is a manual, on-demand run.
Every page shows its own 'updated ... UTC' freshness timestamp, taken from the actual build time -- never a static or estimated value.

Generator version: 0.5.0.
Regime rule engine version: regime-v1.0 (rule-based). Any change to the engine gets a new version label and its own changelog entry -- past regime states are never silently reinterpreted.

The forecast archive service (append-only, SHA-256 hash-chained, so a past prediction can never be quietly edited) is planned but not live on this site yet -- see /bitcoin/scorecard/.
Every forecast that gets published here in the future will be timestamped and hash-chained before publication, and the full history will always stay public -- a half-hidden track record is worse than none, because it breeds distrust.
Until the archive is live, this site does not publish any forecast probability or model-confidence number -- the homepage cards for those say 'coming soon' rather than showing a placeholder figure.