Weather report for Bitcoin
Bitcoin Market Regime
Not a forecast of tomorrow -- a read of what season the market is in right now, so you can size risk accordingly.
Data as of 2026-07-19 22:57 UTC
Strong Risk-Off
Bitcoin is in a confirmed downtrend -- both moving averages and price agree on the direction.
Typically, in this regime
- Price tends to make lower lows, and relief rallies are often sold into.
- Volatility is often elevated -- sharp reversals happen but tend to be short-lived.
- Historically the regime where forced liquidations cluster.
Bitcoin is in a confirmed downtrend -- both moving averages and price agree on the direction. What are EMA50 / EMA200?
What goes into the regime read
regime-v1.0 is a deterministic, rule-based engine (no ML, no LLM) computed from real, live BTC/USDT market data. It blends two views of the market: the trend structure (how price behaves relative to its longer-term moving structure) and a volatility overlay (whether current turbulence is unusual against its own long history), and maps the combination to one of the 5 states above.
The exact rules, weights and thresholds are proprietary — they are the product. What we keep fully public instead is the track record: every regime state is versioned, timestamped, and past states are never silently rewritten, so you can always judge the engine by what it actually said — not by trust in a formula.
Why regime changes can lag the price
A regime change is not a single button flip -- it is several moving averages and a volatility read shifting together. That means the label can update a day or two after the price has already started moving. This is a deliberate trade-off: reacting slower means far fewer false alarms. If you want a system that reacts within minutes, that is a different (and much noisier) product than a regime read.
The last 30 days of regime history are always public here; the full historical regime timeline (this chart) is a static, quarterly-refreshed snapshot -- deeper historical granularity is a Free/Pro feature once the member area ships.