Indicator library
Realized Volatility
How big Bitcoin's daily price swings have actually been.
What it measures: Realized volatility measures how big Bitcoin's daily price swings have actually been over the last 30 days, expressed as an annualized percentage -- how hard the market could hit you, based on what it has actually done recently.
Current 30d realized vol (annualized): 32%
What it signals right now
Realized volatility is 32% annualized, below its one-year median (31th percentile) -- price action is calmer than typical.
How to read it
- Higher realized volatility means larger typical daily price swings, in either direction -- it says nothing about direction, only magnitude.
- The percentile compares today's volatility to its own trailing 1-year range, so 'high' means high for Bitcoin recently, not high in absolute terms.
- Very low volatility (bottom quartile) has historically often preceded volatility expansions -- calm can be the calm before a move, not a permanent state.
Typical misreadings
- High volatility is not the same as a bearish signal -- some of Bitcoin's sharpest up-moves happened during high-volatility stretches.
- Volatility percentile is relative to the trailing year, not to all of Bitcoin's history -- a 'low' reading today might still be high by 2018 standards.
Honest historical context
Volatility tends to cluster: high-volatility periods are usually followed by more high-volatility days, and calm periods by more calm days -- this is why the 30-day window (not a single day) is used here, to avoid over-reacting to one outsized candle.